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private:mike [2019/04/09 04:19]
Mike Wills [Models] 		private:mike [2019/04/15 23:15]
Mike Wills removed
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     * [[https://digital.weather.gov/|Digital Weather]]     * [[https://digital.weather.gov/|Digital Weather]]
   * [[https://preview.weather.gov/edd/|NWS Enahanced Data Display]]   * [[https://preview.weather.gov/edd/|NWS Enahanced Data Display]]
- 
-==== Models ==== 
- 
-  * [[https://www.windy.com/?rain,44.252,-94.013,6,p:off|Windy: Wind map & weather forecast]] 
-  * [[https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/|Tropical Tidbits]] GFS National - Free access to most forecast models. 
-    * [[https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=ncus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn|Tropical Tidbits]] GFS Regional 
-  * [[http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php|pivotal weather]] GFS National 
-    * GFS 
-      * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?dpdt=&mc=&r=us_nc&p=sn10_acc&m=gfs|Total Accumulated Snowfall 10:1]] 
-      * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|Total Accumulated QPF]] 
-      * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfctapp&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|Wind Chill/Heat Index]] 
-    * GFS-FV3 
-      * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?dpdt=&mc=&r=us_nc&p=sn10_acc&m=gfs_fv3|Total Accumulated Snowfall 10:1]] 
-      * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=qpf_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|Total Accumulated QPF]] 
-      * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=sfctapp&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|Wind Chill/Heat Index]] 
-    * NAM 
-      * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sn10_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|Total Accumulated Snowfall 10:1]] 
-      * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=qpf_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|Total Accumulated QPF]] 
-      * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfctapp&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|Wind Chill/Heat Index]] 
-    * NAM 3km 
-      * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sn10_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|Total Accumulated Snowfall 10:1]] 
-      * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=qpf_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|Total Accumulated QPF]] 
-      * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sfctapp&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|Wind Chill/Heat Index]] 
-    * HRRR 
-      * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|Total Accumulated Snowfall 10:1]] 
-      * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=qpf_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|Total Accumulated QPF]] 
-      * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfctapp&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|Wind Chill/Heat Index]] 
-    * GDPS (Canadian) 
-      * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=sn10_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|Total Accumulated Snowfall 10:1]] 
-      * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=qpf_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|Total Accumulated QPF]] 
-      * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=sfctapp&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|Wind Chill/Heat Index]] 
-  * [[http://weather.graphics/nbm/city.php|Temp Graphs from WX Bell]] 
  
 ==== Storm Prediction ==== ==== Storm Prediction ====
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 ==== Winter ==== ==== Winter ====
- 
   * [[https://www.weather.gov/mpx/winter|MPX Winter Weather]]   * [[https://www.weather.gov/mpx/winter|MPX Winter Weather]]
   * [[https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/wssi.php?id=MPX|MPX Winter Storm Severity Index]]   * [[https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/wssi.php?id=MPX|MPX Winter Storm Severity Index]]
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     * [[https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php|Day 4-7 Winter Weather Outlook]]     * [[https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php|Day 4-7 Winter Weather Outlook]]
   * [[https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/|National Snow Analyses]]   * [[https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/|National Snow Analyses]]
 +
 +==== Models ====
 +  * [[https://www.windy.com/?rain,44.252,-94.013,6,p:off|Windy: Wind map & weather forecast]]
 +  * [[https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/|Tropical Tidbits]] GFS National - Free access to most forecast models.
 +  * [[http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php|pivotal weather]] GFS National
 +  * [[http://weather.graphics/nbm/city.php|Temp Graphs from WX Bell]]
 +  * [[https://www.weathernerds.org/|Weather Nerds]]
 +
 +=== GFS ===
 +This older model is not as accurate. GFS is run four times a day and produces forecasts for up to 16 days in advance, but with decreased spatial resolution after 10 days.
 +
 +  * [[https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=ncus&pkg=ref_frzn|TT: 6-hour Averaged Precip Rate, MSLP, & 1000-500mb Thickness]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?dpdt=&mc=&r=us_nc&p=sn10_acc&m=gfs|PW: Total Accumulated Snowfall 10:1]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Total Accumulated QPF]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfctapp&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Wind Chill/Heat Index]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfctd_b&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Dew Point, Wind Barbs]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=mucape&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Most Unstable CAPE]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sbcape&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Surface-Based CAPE]]
 +
 +=== GFS-FV3 ===
 +Newer, more accurate GFS model. Still being developed.
 +
 +  * [[https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=ncus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn|TT: 6-hour Averaged Precip Rate, MSLP, & 1000-500mb Thickness]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?dpdt=&mc=&r=us_nc&p=sn10_acc&m=gfs_fv3|PW: Total Accumulated Snowfall 10:1]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=qpf_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Total Accumulated QPF]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=sfctapp&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Wind Chill/Heat Index]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=sfctd_b&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Dew Point, Wind Barbs]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=mucape&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Most Unstable CAPE]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=sbcape&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Surface-Based CAPE]]
 +
 +=== NAM ===
 +Short-term weather forecasting. The model is run four times a day (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC) out to 84 hours.
 +
 +  * [[https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-nmm&region=ncus&pkg=ref_frzn|TT: Near-Surface Reflectivity (dDZ), MSLP (mb; 0.5-degree smoothed)]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sn10_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Total Accumulated Snowfall 10:1]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=qpf_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Total Accumulated QPF]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfctapp&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Wind Chill/Heat Index]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfctd_b&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Dew Point, Wind Barbs]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=mucape&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Most Unstable CAPE]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sbcape&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Surface-Based CAPE]]
 +
 +=== NAM 3km ===
 +  * [[https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=ncus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn|TT: Instantaneous Precip Rate (mm/hr), MSLP (hPa), & 1000-500mb Thickness (dam)]]
 +  * [[https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=ncus&pkg=ref_uv10m|TT: Near-Surface Reflectivity (dBZ) & 10m Wind (kt)
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sn10_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Total Accumulated Snowfall 10:1]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=qpf_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Total Accumulated QPF]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sfctapp&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Wind Chill/Heat Index]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sfctd_b&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Dew Point, Wind Barbs]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=mucape&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Most Unstable CAPE]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sbcape&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Surface-Based CAPE]]
 +
 +=== HRRR ===
 +The HRRR is a NOAA real-time 3-km resolution, hourly updated, cloud-resolving, convection-allowing atmospheric model, initialized by 3km grids with 3km radar assimilation. Radar data is assimilated in the HRRR every 15 min over a 1-h period adding further detail to that provided by the hourly data assimilation from the 13km radar-enhanced Rapid Refresh .
 +
 +  * [[https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=ncus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn|TT: 1km AGL Reflectivity (dBZ) and MSPL]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Total Accumulated Snowfall 10:1]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=qpf_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Total Accumulated QPF]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfctapp&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Wind Chill/Heat Index]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfctd_b&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Dew Point, Wind Barbs]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=mucape&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Most Unstable CAPE]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sbcape&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Surface-Based CAPE]]
 +
 +=== RAP ===
 +The Rapid Refresh is the continental-scale NOAA hourly-updated assimilation/modeling system operational at NCEP. RAP covers North America and is comprised primarily of a numerical forecast model and an analysis/assimilation system to initialize that model. RAP is complemented by the higher-resolution 3km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, which is also updated hourly and covering a smaller geographic domain.
 +
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=sn10_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Total Accumulated Snowfall 10:1]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=qpf_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Total Accumulated QPF]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=sfctapp&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Wind Chill/Heat Index]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=sfctd_b&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Dew Point, Wind Barbs]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=mucape&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Most Unstable CAPE]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=sbcape&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Surface-Based CAPE]]
 +
 +=== GDPS (Canadian) ===
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=sn10_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|Total Accumulated Snowfall 10:1]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=qpf_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|Total Accumulated QPF]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=sfctapp&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|Wind Chill/Heat Index]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=sfctd_b&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|Dew Point, Wind Barbs]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=mucape&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|Most Unstable CAPE]]
 +  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=sbcape&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|Surface-Based CAPE]]
  
 ===== In Stormy Conditions ===== ===== In Stormy Conditions =====