Differences

This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.

--- private:mike [2019/04/15 02:29]
Mike Wills
+++ private:mike [2019/04/15 23:15]
Mike Wills removed
@@ Line 28: / Line 28: @@
   * [[https://preview.weather.gov/edd/|NWS Enahanced Data Display]]
-==== Models ====
+==== Storm Prediction ====
+  * [[https://www.spc.noaa.gov/|Storm Prediction Center]]
+    * [[https://weatherwiki.mikewills.me/doku.php/forecast/severe_weather/severe_weather_outlook|Severe Weather Outlook]]
+    * [[https://weatherwiki.mikewills.me/doku.php/forecast/excessive_rainfall_forecasts|Excessive Rainfall Forecasts]]
+    * [[http://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?url=http%3A%2F%2Fidpgis.ncep.noaa.gov%2Farcgis%2Frest%2Fservices%2FNWS_Forecasts_Guidance_Warnings%2FSPC_wx_outlks%2FMapServer&source=sd|Interactive Map]]
+    * [[https://weatherwiki.mikewills.me/doku.php/forecast/severe_weather/watches_and_reports|Watches and Reports]]
+  * [[https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=13|SPC Mesoscale Analysis]]
+==== Winter ====
+  * [[https://www.weather.gov/mpx/winter|MPX Winter Weather]]
+  * [[https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/wssi.php?id=MPX|MPX Winter Storm Severity Index]]
+  * [[https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml|Winter Weather Forecasts]]
+    * [[http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=1&ftype=probabilities|WPC Probabilistic Winter Precipitation Guidance Day 1 - 3]]
+    * [[https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php|Day 4-7 Winter Weather Outlook]]
+  * [[https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/|National Snow Analyses]]
+==== Models ====
   * [[https://www.windy.com/?rain,44.252,-94.013,6,p:off|Windy: Wind map & weather forecast]]
   * [[https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/|Tropical Tidbits]] GFS National - Free access to most forecast models.
   * [[http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php|pivotal weather]] GFS National
   * [[http://weather.graphics/nbm/city.php|Temp Graphs from WX Bell]]
+  * [[https://www.weathernerds.org/|Weather Nerds]]
 === GFS ===
+This older model is not as accurate. GFS is run four times a day and produces forecasts for up to 16 days in advance, but with decreased spatial resolution after 10 days.
   * [[https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=ncus&pkg=ref_frzn|TT: 6-hour Averaged Precip Rate, MSLP, & 1000-500mb Thickness]]
   * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?dpdt=&mc=&r=us_nc&p=sn10_acc&m=gfs|PW: Total Accumulated Snowfall 10:1]]
@@ Line 45: / Line 63: @@
 === GFS-FV3 ===
+Newer, more accurate GFS model. Still being developed.
   * [[https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=ncus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn|TT: 6-hour Averaged Precip Rate, MSLP, & 1000-500mb Thickness]]
   * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?dpdt=&mc=&r=us_nc&p=sn10_acc&m=gfs_fv3|PW: Total Accumulated Snowfall 10:1]]
@@ Line 54: / Line 74: @@
 === NAM ===
+Short-term weather forecasting. The model is run four times a day (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC) out to 84 hours.
+  * [[https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-nmm&region=ncus&pkg=ref_frzn|TT: Near-Surface Reflectivity (dDZ), MSLP (mb; 0.5-degree smoothed)]]
   * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sn10_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Total Accumulated Snowfall 10:1]]
   * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=qpf_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Total Accumulated QPF]]
@@ Line 63: / Line 86: @@
 === NAM 3km ===
   * [[https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=ncus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn|TT: Instantaneous Precip Rate (mm/hr), MSLP (hPa), & 1000-500mb Thickness (dam)]]
+  * [[https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=ncus&pkg=ref_uv10m|TT: Near-Surface Reflectivity (dBZ) & 10m Wind (kt)
   * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sn10_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Total Accumulated Snowfall 10:1]]
   * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=qpf_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Total Accumulated QPF]]
@@ Line 70: / Line 94: @@
   * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sbcape&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Surface-Based CAPE]]
-=== HRRR===
+=== HRRR ===
+The HRRR is a NOAA real-time 3-km resolution, hourly updated, cloud-resolving, convection-allowing atmospheric model, initialized by 3km grids with 3km radar assimilation. Radar data is assimilated in the HRRR every 15 min over a 1-h period adding further detail to that provided by the hourly data assimilation from the 13km radar-enhanced Rapid Refresh .
   * [[https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=ncus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn|TT: 1km AGL Reflectivity (dBZ) and MSPL]]
   * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Total Accumulated Snowfall 10:1]]
@@ Line 78: / Line 104: @@
   * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=mucape&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Most Unstable CAPE]]
   * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sbcape&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Surface-Based CAPE]]
+=== RAP ===
+The Rapid Refresh is the continental-scale NOAA hourly-updated assimilation/modeling system operational at NCEP. RAP covers North America and is comprised primarily of a numerical forecast model and an analysis/assimilation system to initialize that model. RAP is complemented by the higher-resolution 3km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, which is also updated hourly and covering a smaller geographic domain.
+  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=sn10_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Total Accumulated Snowfall 10:1]]
+  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=qpf_acc&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Total Accumulated QPF]]
+  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=sfctapp&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Wind Chill/Heat Index]]
+  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=sfctd_b&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Dew Point, Wind Barbs]]
+  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=mucape&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Most Unstable CAPE]]
+  * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=sbcape&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|PW: Surface-Based CAPE]]
 === GDPS (Canadian) ===
@@ Line 86: / Line 122: @@
   * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=mucape&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|Most Unstable CAPE]]
   * [[https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=sbcape&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=|Surface-Based CAPE]]
-==== Storm Prediction ====
-  * [[https://www.spc.noaa.gov/|Storm Prediction Center]]
-    * [[https://weatherwiki.mikewills.me/doku.php/forecast/severe_weather/severe_weather_outlook|Severe Weather Outlook]]
-    * [[https://weatherwiki.mikewills.me/doku.php/forecast/excessive_rainfall_forecasts|Excessive Rainfall Forecasts]]
-    * [[http://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?url=http%3A%2F%2Fidpgis.ncep.noaa.gov%2Farcgis%2Frest%2Fservices%2FNWS_Forecasts_Guidance_Warnings%2FSPC_wx_outlks%2FMapServer&source=sd|Interactive Map]]
-    * [[https://weatherwiki.mikewills.me/doku.php/forecast/severe_weather/watches_and_reports|Watches and Reports]]
-  * [[https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=13|SPC Mesoscale Analysis]]
-==== Winter ====
-  * [[https://www.weather.gov/mpx/winter|MPX Winter Weather]]
-  * [[https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/wssi.php?id=MPX|MPX Winter Storm Severity Index]]
-  * [[https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml|Winter Weather Forecasts]]
-    * [[http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=1&ftype=probabilities|WPC Probabilistic Winter Precipitation Guidance Day 1 - 3]]
-    * [[https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php|Day 4-7 Winter Weather Outlook]]
-  * [[https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/|National Snow Analyses]]
 ===== In Stormy Conditions =====